De-Self-Delusion
Without Trump, Republicans are simply left with their unpopular policies.
The promised “Red Wave” never hit shore. The final result (yet to be determined) will be a mixed bag, but one that—due to Biden’s low approval ratings and the seeming inevitability of Midterm reversals—has been taken as a Democratic victory by both sides.
The mood among Republican hacks is one of depression and anger . . . and many are seizing the opportunity to blame the Big Man at Mar-a-lago. Finally, they think, they’ll be able to get rid of Trump, whom they vehemently opposed … right up to the moment he won the Republican nomination. This includes Fox News, which, we forget, was anti-Trump throughout 2015-16, and had its then-star anchor, Megyn Kelly, attack him in a televised debate. In short order, Fox was brought to heel and transformed into Trump TV. Kayleigh McEnany was anti-Trump before 2016, as was Liz Cheney, Ben Shapiro, Ted Cruz, Matt Walsh, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, et al.. They all took different paths over the past six years, but each one has been, in his own way, licking his chops for a moment to strike.
The Red Era: Still Boring
Looking at the results, the status quo is largely in tact. In the Senate, with John Fetterman flipping Pennsylvania and incumbents likely holding on in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, we are, once again, set for a run-off in Georgia to determine which party will be in control, by the slimmest of margins. The GOP will probably take over the House, but the final tally won’t be particularly impressive. Republicans might hold 220 seats, a mirror image of the current situation. And even that is in doubt.
All of this is standard fare in the “Red Era,” the past quarter century in which Republicans have had the edge nation wide. This began with the “Revolution” of 1994, when Newt Gingrich’s declared war on the Left and announced the death of FDR’s coalition. In that time, between the 104th and 116th Congresses, Republicans have controlled 10 of the 13 House classes. They’ve done this, however, while making up just over 51 percent of Representatives on average. This is far, far cry from the Democrats’ dominance during the Blue Era (1933-1995), when they consistently held 60 percent of the House, with margins ranging between 80 to 150 seats. (See data here.) The Blue Era was one of one-party hegemony and landmark pieces of legislation. The Red Era is characterized by polarization, gridlock, and a total lack of vision.
And it continues. Republican presidential victories are only possible through the Electoral College, and Midterms sweeps come with net gains in the dozens. There is no Republican candidate who could possibly win over the electorate in a way that resembles 1984, or even 2004. The reason for this is simple. The Democrats’ broad constituency, young people and professional-class Whites, is still very much in effect. This voting bloc might not have been “fully operational” this November—that requires someone as obnoxious as Donald Trump to be on the ballot—but the notion that the Republicans were about to sweep the country was always delusional.
Pro-Lifers: Ruined By Their Success
For Republicans, liabilities are assets, and thus can’t be shaken off. The clearest example of this is the abortion issue. In the wake of the Dobbs decision, abortion was on the ballot and likely will be again going forward. In the 2020 presidential election, 60 percent of Kansas went for Trump; in 2022, by that same score, an anti-abortion measure resoundingly failed. This past Tuesday, similar bills were voted on in Red (or Purple) states like Kentucky, Montana, and Michigan. All these pro-life initiatives went down hard. And in all cases, abortion rights out-performed Democrats. This tells us that access to abortion, within a reasonable paradigm like Roe v. Wade, is overwhelmingly popular. It is one issue, similar to “Medicare For All,” which consistently bucks the “Coke or Pepsi” trend of polarization.
There’s a temptation to suggest, as Richard Hannania seems to do, that “abortion blocked the Red Wave.” But this is misguided. It ignores the fact that the GOP owns this issue and ultimately could not persist without it. Mitt Romney and Donald Trump expressed pro-choice views throughout most of their adult lives, yet suddenly became pro-lifers when they decided to run for the Republican nomination. Even in the 1980s, this was obligatory. George H.W. Bush had been nicknamed “rubbers” by his colleagues, due to his zeal for promoting contraception, in America and around the world as ambassador to the United Nations. When he was added to the GOP ticket, he, miraculously, had a change of heart. The organization “Republican Majority for Choice” was never much of a force and ceased operation all-together in 2018. Pro-life Republicans can be counted on one hand, and none of them will be leading the party.1
The reason for this is that a major Republican constituency is dedicated to this cause. Evangelical Christians are around a third of the population of Gen-Xers and Baby Boomers; 80 percent of evangelical voters supported Donald Trump in 2020. And they didn’t just vote for him! Trump was for them chosen by God, maybe even the “Son of Man.”
Suggesting that the GOP drop abortion rights would be like advising Marilyn Monroe to dye her hair green or Carrot Top to cease performing “prop comedy.” It is their thing, for better and for worse. The overturning of Roe meant that the rubber will hit road for the GOP: their long-time unpopular cause is now an unpopular policy. It will not help them, but they must own it.
A Very Convenient Overreaction
If the Red Wave did reach shore, it was in the state of Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected with almost 60 percent of the vote. He won a large portion of Hispanics, and even took Miami-Dade Country at 55 percent, after losing there by 20 points four years ago.
In DeSantis, the “true conservatives” believe they have found their man—a pragmatic Republican, without all the high-jinx, who could win over the country with conservative policies, like Reagan did.
As mentioned, erstwhile “never Trumpers,” like Ben Shapiro and Matt Walsh, eventually came around; they benefited from having Trump in power, and, in their way, defined online conservatism. They went along with “Stop the Steal” to some degree and were more anti-mask and anti-vaxx than the man himself. Having taken advantage of the Trump era, they now see an opening, a way of distinguishing themselves and returning to the what they wanted at the beginning.
In other words, enthusiasm for DeSantis is a very convenient overreaction. First, it’s simply an overreaction to an incumbent governor winning re-election against an off-the-shelf opponent. And it’s very convenient in that conservatives love telling themselves that their own narrow preferences are actually popular around the country.
Ron DeSantis’s public profile is not one of a “uniter” or “pragmatic conservative.” To the contrary, he is known as a Trump devotee, fierce partisan, the guy who attacked Disney, banned books, pushed gays back into the closet, wants to ban abortion, and human-trafficked unsuspecting migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. In other words, DeSantis has a “vibe” quite similar to Trump himself. He’s just not nearly as much fun. It’s ironic that conservatives imagine that Trump is all style and DeSantis, substance and policy. In reality, DeSantis rose to fame by worshiping Trump, mimicking his catch phrase, mannerisms, and even hand-gestures.
“DeSanctimonious” is a pale counterfeit of Trump. One must ask: Why you would you reach for a Red Bull when lines of pure cocaine are on the table? Hypothetically speaking.
Regardless, if DeSantis were somehow to win the Republican nomination, perhaps with Trump in prison, the governor would quickly activate the same Blue coalition that soundly defeated Trump in 2020.
Saagar Enjeti does the math.
“X” is the motivating, mobilizing factor around Trumpism for both sides. It is why Trump would be defeated by the Blue coalition in 2024 … but also why he would raise millions and activate his base beyond imagination. “X” is the ability to say “fuck you!” to snobby liberals . . . the itching feeling that dark forces are at play at the upper reaches of power . . . the chaotic, endlessly entertaining train wreck of scandals, insults, and brutality . . . the whiff of fascism . . . the joy of voting for the guy from The Apprentice and fake Wrestling . . . the feeling of being on a team in a “trial by combat.”
There is no Trumpism without Trump, and every “bug” is, in fact, a “feature.” Without the “X,” Republicans are simply left with their unpopular policies.
The reverse goes for Democrats. There are actually a few pro-life Democrats, such Texas Representative Henry Cuellar, but they are minor figures at most.